The Hamas attack in Israel: Causes, implications, and possible outcomes
By Christopher Solomon
On October 7, 2023, the world witnessed yet another violent flare-up in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Hamas launching a significant surprise terrorist attack on Israeli soil. I will attempt to provide an analysis of the circumstances surrounding this awful situation, including why Hamas attacked, the conditions that led to it, and what the terrorist group aims to achieve. I will explain what this means for the United States, Iran’s role in the attack, Hezbollah’s potential involvement, the risk of broader geopolitical conflict, and the potential outcomes of an Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip.
I want to emphasize that, having observed the Israel-Palestinian conflict for two decades, this is the most severe situation I’ve witnessed. The attacks on innocent Israeli civilians in southern Israel are deeply distressing and should be unequivocally condemned.
I have long been in favor of a political solution to secure Palestinian rights and self-determination, I think those advocating for Palestine who chose to ignore or cheer for these atrocities are making a terrible error. In recent years, the level of support for the Palestinians in the United States has increased, with the issue becoming more prominent and dynamic within the Democratic Party. In my view, the Palestinian cause will now be set back by decades.
It is heartbreaking for both Israeli families recovering from this attack and who have loved ones being held hostage in Gaza. It is also heartbreaking for the many innocent Palestinians in densely populated Gaza, who have nothing to do with Hamas but now bear the brunt of the intense Israeli assault.
Why did Hamas Attack Israel?
Hamas, a Palestinian militant organization that has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, launched the attack due to various underlying factors:
- Frustration and desperation: Prolonged Israeli occupation, economic hardship, and lack of progress in peace talks have left Palestinians frustrated and desperate. Hamas aims to gain political influence and credibility among Palestinians by portraying itself as a resistance force against Israeli occupation. The changing regional dynamics and the perceived diminishing support for Palestinians from Arab states (through the policy of the Abraham Accords initiated by the Trump Administration and continued by the Biden Administration) have pushed Hamas to take more aggressive actions.
- Stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process: The lack of progress in peace negotiations and growing disillusionment on both sides created an environment conducive to violence. The past few years have seen waves of Israeli far-right groups active in the West Bank and provocations at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. The West Bank has been the scene of daily clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian civilians and active militants. Palestinians feel hopeless and humiliated on a regular basis. For its part, the Palestinian Authority (PA), which technically governs the West Bank and works in security cooperation with Israel, is intensely unpopular.
- Internal Israeli politics: Israel has been locked in a period of domestic protests over Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition and his push for judicial reforms. Hamas likely viewed these conditions as a weak moment in Israeli society that it could take advantage of the situation. Furthermore, the deployment of Israeli army brigades to protect Israeli settlers in the West Bank left the area around the Gaza Strip relatively unprotected as it normally would have been.
- Economic hardship: The deteriorating economic situation in the Gaza Strip, international isolation from the blockade, high unemployment, and limited access to basic necessities, have increased frustration among the Palestinian population.
- Palestinian political dysfunction: Ongoing political fragmentation within the Palestinian territories, with Hamas governing Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank, added to the complexity of the situation. The PA is incredibly weak, having been largely abandoned by US-led international diplomacy. The head of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, is 87 years old and there is tremendous uncertainty on who will become the PA’s next leader. Hamas sees this as an opportunity to maximize the group’s political leverage over internal Palestinian politics.
Hamas’s attack aimed to:
Demonstrate its new advanced military capabilities: Hamas seeks to prove its military prowess and maintain its position as a prominent Palestinian resistance group. One anonymous Israeli military official even indicated to Al-Monitor that Hamas might have been surprised by its own success.
Distract from internal issues: The attack could divert attention from internal governance challenges and provide a rallying point for Palestinians.
Pressure Israel: By attacking Israeli territory and taking hostages, Hamas intends to pressure Israel to make concessions, release Palestinian prisoners, and ease restrictions on Gaza. Perhaps most importantly, the attack is aimed at disrupting the potential normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that the Biden Administration has been facilitating.
The United States has responded in several ways:
- Condemnation: President Biden has strongly condemned the Hamas attack and expressed unwavering support for Israel’s right to defend itself.
- Diplomacy: The U.S. has called regional leaders and is already working behind the scenes to coordinate the release of hostages and US citizens trapped in Gaza.
- Military assistance: The U.S. has sent emergency military supplies to Israel and is reinforcing its defense capabilities, including sending a US aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Iran’s role:
Iran has been a known supporter of Hamas, providing financial and military assistance. The Hamas attack in Israel demonstrated a high level of training, coordination, and the use of drone technology that Israel did not expect Hamas to be capable of carrying out.
As an organization, Hamas retains a high level of independence, so it cannot be described as a proxy of Iran. During the early-to-mid phases of the Syrian civil war, Hamas cut ties with the Assad regime (Iran’s close ally) in favor of the Syrian opposition. The group was divided internally, with the military faction wishing to restore ties with Damascus. However, Hamas maintained its support from Iran during this period and eventually restored relations with Assad in June 2022.
However, the extent of Iran’s direct involvement in the attack (for instance, giving Hamas the green light) remains unclear. While Israel may consider striking Iran in retaliation, such a move could escalate regional tensions in the region significantly. The New York Times reported on October 11 that the Iranian leadership was surprised by the attack.
Hezbollah’s potential involvement:
Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, could potentially become involved in the conflict to show solidarity with Hamas. There have already been brief skirmishes along the Israeli-Lebanese border, as well as Syria. In my view, Hezbollah is still holding back and is not yet fully committed to joining the conflict.
Hezbollah could opt to fire its massive arsenal of rockets and missiles at Israel if the Israeli military’s ground assault into Gaza proves to be lengthy and difficult. Hezbollah is widely viewed as one of the most powerful non-state militaries in the world. Its fighters are battle-hardened after years of fighting in support of Assad in Syria, organized, and well-trained. Opening up a second front in the conflict will divert IDF military resources away from Gaza and could increase Hamas’ ability to hold off the Israelis. A northern front would dramatically raise the risk of US military involvement and spark a wider regional confrontation that further complicates the situation.
Geopolitical conflict risk:
The risk of the fighting expanding into a wider geopolitical conflict is significant, especially given the presence of US troops in Iraq and Syria. Pro-Iranian militias could target US forces in these areas, potentially leading to a broader regional conflict.
Conclusion:
Israel is currently conducting an intense bombardment of the Gaza Strip. The success of an Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip is uncertain, as it depends on various factors. If Israel manages to defeat Hamas militarily, it could result in a reduction in violence. This could, at least in theory, lead to the possibility of future peace talks that could try to end the conflict. It is not likely that the PA (or some other governing entity) would be able to replace Hamas in Gaza and establish stability.
However, a failure to completely defeat Hamas could lead to further instability and potentially more extensive conflict in the region. An Israeli ground assault into Gaza is likely to begin soon. It will be extremely difficult for Israel to enter a crowded and densely populated area to destroy Hamas and rescue over a hundred hostages.
The ground assault will be heavily scrutinized by the international community and does not have a high likelihood of success in my view. Hamas has likely anticipated that the Israeli military would try to enter Gaza and has planned out the next few phases of the conflict. There will be a high number of Israeli military casualties and innocent Palestinian civilians killed.
Within the scope of Israeli politics, there will be an inquiry into the intelligence failure, and Netanyahu’s ability to continue as the prime minister is likely to come to an end. He branded himself as “Mr. Security” and this attack happened under his watch.
However the situation unfolds, in the long run, it will be crucial for all parties involved — Israel, the Palestinians, and the United States — to seek diplomatic solutions to address the root causes of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and to work toward lasting peace in the region.
